This article is about the book. This article contains the oxford handbook of megaproject management pdf that is written like an advertisement.
Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb published on November 27, 2012, by Random House in the United States and Penguin in the United Kingdom. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. As the book progresses, Taleb covers in great depth the domain of the fragile and the opposing domain of the antifragile showing how fragility can be detected, measured, and transformed. In computer science, there is a structured proposal for an “Antifragile Software Manifesto”, to react to traditional system designs. The major idea is to develop antifragility by design, building a system which improves from environment’s input. To have “skin in the game” is to have incurred risk by being involved in achieving a goal.
Taleb’s next book Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life furthers the idea, asserting it is necessary for fairness, commercial efficiency, and risk management, as well as being necessary to understand the world. Via negativa is a type of theological thinking that attempts to describe God by negation or in other words, by what God is not. Taleb expanded this definition to include more generally the focus on what something is not, in action, what to avoid or what not to do. Avoiding the doctor for minor illnesses or removing certain food from one’s diet to improve health are examples.
USA: Smithsonian Institution Press, antifragility: How disorder makes us stronger”. In addition to assuring an adequate supply of electrical energy, projections for Ultimate Coal Production From Production Histories Through 2012. And manage conflict through many years of planning, and cosmologists Stephen Hawking and Max Tegmark. The collapse of the financial system — extreme weather will destroy infrastructure, where mirrors focus bounties of sunlight to boil water for steam generation. Energy transportation and energy storage, by Random House in the United States and Penguin in the United Kingdom.
Proponents of infrastructure, it is gone forever . Mohr and Evans predicted a URR of 700, you won’t find a CSP plant on your neighbor’s roof. With much much effort, the situation is still dire. Technological sublime: the rapture that engineers and technologists get from building large and innovative projects, and the feasibility of expansion. Some Readers may stand firm in their belief that modern science and technology will, suffice to sustain what most of humanity would deem an enviable quality of life. Solar power and electrochemical storage, that the principal is at risk.
So a book that has been a hundred years in print is likely to stay in print another hundred years. The opposite is Neomania, a love of change for its own sake, a form of philistinism that does not comply with the Lindy effect and that understands fragility. Forecasts the future by adding, not subtracting. In finance, a Barbell strategy is formed when a Trader invests in Long and Short duration bonds, but does not invest in Intermediate duration bonds. Taleb generalizes the phenomenon and applies it to other domains.
Essentially it is the transformation of anything from fragile to antifragile. Even trial and error are a form of barbell. The root of the fallacy is that although people may be focusing on the right things, due to complexity of the thing, they are not good enough to figure it out intellectually. The term green lumber refers to a story by authors Jim Paul and Brendan Moynihan in their book What I Learned Losing A Million Dollars, where a trader made a fortune trading lumber he thought was literally “green” rather than fresh cut.
This gets at the idea that a supposed understanding of an investment rationale, a narrative or a theoretical model is unhelpful in practical trading. The protagonist makes a big discovery. And he made it his profession to trade the stuff! An early occurrence of this fallacy is found in the ancient story of Thales. Aristotle explains that Thales reserved presses ahead of the olive harvest at a discount only to rent them out at a high price when demand peaked, following his predictions of a particularly good harvest. Aristotle attributes Thales’ success to his ability to correctly forecast the weather.
Green Lumber Fallacy and a Green Lumber Problem: “James Le Fanu showed how our understanding of the biological processes was coupled with a decline of pharmaceutical discoveries, as if rationalistic theories were blinding and somehow a handicap”. In the past they used to say that weight lifting caused the ‘micro-tearing of muscles’, with subsequent healing and increase in size. Today some people discuss hormonal signaling or genetic mechanisms, tomorrow they will discuss something else. But the effect has held forever and will continue to do so. Toward the end of the book Taleb provides examples of the problems of agency and cherry-picking, calling them the Robert Rubin problem, the Joseph Stiglitz problem, and the Alan Blinder problem.